How should we think about educa­ tional investment strategies? Although it seems implausible on the sur­ face, let's consider what hypothetical circumstances would make disproportionate attention to higher education the correct way to view education policy, given the current state of our educational system. Recent federal actions have intro­duced significant tax subsidies and expenditures related to students attending colleges and universities. The best information currently available, however, suggests that few new students will be attracted to college as a result of the subsidy package-implying that this should be viewed mainly as a transfer to students who would otherwise at­ tend college, not as a program designed to change the human capital development of our youths.