Published Date
1997
Editors
Constance F. Citro
Eric A. Hanushek
Publication
Washington, DC: National Academy Press
Pages
256 pages
Type
The retirement income security of older Americans and the cost of providing that security are increasingly the subject of major debate. This volume assesses what we know and recommends what we need to know to estimate the short- and long-term effects of policy alternatives. It details gaps in data and research and evaluates possible models to estimate the impact of policy changes that could affect retirement income from Social Security, pensions, personal savings, and other sources.
PANEL ON RETIREMENT INCOME MODELING
ERIC A. HANUSHEK (Chair), W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy, University of Rochester
HENRY AARON, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
ALAN J. AUERBACH, Department of Economics, University of Califomia, Berkeley
CHRISTOPHER BONE, Actuarial Sciences Associates, Somerset, New Jersey
PETER DIAMOND, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MICHAEL HURD, Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook
OLIVIA S. MITCHELL, Department of Insurance and Risk Management, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
JOHN P. RUST, Department of Economics, Yale University
TIMOTHY M. SMEEDING, Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University
JAMES P. SMITH, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
NANCY L. MARITATO, Research Associate
CANDICE S. EVANS, Project Assistant
CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.
INTRODUCTION
Retirement Income Security
11
The Report
14
2
CONSIDERATIONS IN RETIREMENT INCOME PROJECTIONS
The Concern for Income Security
17
Near-Term Policy Options
25
Outcome Criteria
31
Challenges to Projection Modeling
34
3
KEY RESEARCH ISSUES
Employer Behavior
42
Choices of Families and Individuals
46
Health Care Costs
56
Conclusion
57
4
DATA NEEDS
The Lesson from Health Care Reform
62
Dimensions of Databases
68
Panel Data on Individuals
70
Data on Employers
96
Expanded Use of Administrative Data
120
Data Validation
124
5
DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT MODELS
Current Models and Their Uses
133
Looking to the Future
140
Validation
153
Near-Term Modeling Strategies
159
6
FURTHERING COORDINATION FOR DATA COLLECTION, RESEARCH, AND MODELING
Organizational Issues
165
Coordination Mechanisms
167
Involving the Private Sector and Academia
170
APPENDICES
CONTENTS, ASSESSING KNOWLEDGE OF RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR
RETIREMENT-INCOME-RELATED DATA SETS
EXAMPLES OF RETIREMENT-INCOME-RELATED PROJECTION METHODS
MAJOR ASPECTS OF DYNASIM2 AND PRISM
REFERENCES
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF
INDEX